Where ICM is lacking?

[nichtsnutz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You have $1. I offer you a coinflip where you pay $1 if I win and I pay $2 if you win today, but tomorrow im going to offer $3 for your $1. Taking the bet today would be stupid. Thats how ICM can be shortsighted- you are (potentially) passing up better opportunities.

The issue then is how often a better opportunity will come about, something that I feel needs to be included in these SnG ICM tools.

[/ QUOTE ]
Assume each wager can only be taken once, and any winnings can be wagered the next day (this makes the analogy closer to a poker situtation).

Lets say you take the 1st wager. Now 50% of the time you end up with $3, you then take this $3 and wager it tommorrow, gaining $9 if you win losing your $3 if you lose. Therefore you have a 25% chance of ending up with $12, EV = $3.

Now lets say you pass on the 1st wager, and take the 2nd. You now end up with $4 50% of the time, EV = $2.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you took the first wager 50% of the time youd have $2, not $3, going into tomorrow. The other 50% of the time youd be broke. Im not going to compute the EV though because my point was just that you cant say its +EV and push without thinking about BETTER options. The above example was meant to illustrate this point, not be replaced as a poker analogy.

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes no sense. You say "If you took the first wager 50% of the time youd have $2....The other 50% of the time youd be broke."

This accounts to a regular coinflip and is not what you wrote earlier. It would also be 0 EV. The other person was right. If I win you PAY me $2 and if you win I PAY you $1 and am broke. And as somebody has already pointed out it would be stupid to pass the opportunity because it allowes me to wager more on the even better coinflip tomorrow.

This also goes for the SNGs. You keep saying "I should pass up this +EV opportunity because there will be a even higher EV opportunity tomorrow". What you are missing is, that taking the first +EV opportunity will allow you to take better opportunities in the future more often then it will prevent you from doing so.

To use your AK/AA example. Imagine your opponent has 3 times your stack. If you fold the AK you have a 70% (or whatever) chance of getting even in chips with AA. Lets just say this wins you the tourney exaclty 50% of the time so you win .7 * .5 = 35%. But had you called with the AK (lets say you win it 60%) as well you'd have won the tournament .6 * .7 = 42%