Bodog Politics Props

[centris]

Bodog just added a number of politics props. I was thinking we could discuss some of them within this thread. I will start

Will President Bush issue a Full pardon to Lewis 'Scooter' Libby before the end of 2007? No +175

Monday night, just before he would have had to report to jail, Bush commuted Libby's 30 month prison sentence for lying to a grand jury. This left intact the 250k fine, 2 yr probation and felony conviction on his record, which would prevent him from praticing law. For this reason some people think Bush could sometime in the future offer a full pardon, and Tony Snow explicity stated that Bush was leaving in this option open. Even if Bush does this some time in the future, which he probably will, there are some reasons I do not think it will be before the end of 2007.

1) Historical Precedent In recent administrations pardons have come very late in the term, specifically after the presidential election. This was true of George HW Bush who pardoned six people related to the Iran-Contra thing on Dec 24 of 1992, and Clinton issued his pardons on the last day he was in office. If Bush does the same he will not start pardoning until after Nov 2008. Bush could not wait until then to commute Libby's sentence because then he would have had to spend from now to then in prison.

2. Libby continues his appeals When Libby is pardoned the felony is expunded from his record, since the sentence was commuted the felony is still on his record so he can appeal it. This is benefical to Bush/Libby/Cheney because it allows him to plead the fifth in any future congressional investigations into the Plame scandal. Also it allows for the possiblity that the conviction is overturned in appeal getting rid of the need for an unpopular pardon.

3. Wait until after the election As outlined in 1. unpopular pardons are often done after the election to prevent putting candidates in the president's party in the uncomfortable position of being asked if they support the pardon. And more generally the pardon before the election could hurt republican congressional canidates.

So I went with No +175. I really think this is good to like No -200. But I would like to hear from other people.

I would also like to hear what people have to think about some of the other ones.