*official 2007 red sox thread*

[NT!]

buerhle's got a career 3.80 ERA (122 ERA+), schilling is barely any better for his career at 3.46 (126 ERA+). his last three seasons (including 2007) have been 77, 116 and 107. he had one great season in boston, with a 150 ERA+ in 2004.

just for reference in terms of what a 5/75 deal would mean for buerhle, BP projects him as about 16-17 WARP over the next five years (including 2007) for a MORP of around 36.6 million. over the same period, they project

zito's MORP to 34 million,
gil meche's to 18 million,
beckett's to 41.9 million,
d matz to over 61 million!!!
schmidt to 30 million
zambrano to 52 million
schilling to 31 million (mostly b/c they thought he'd be a lot better this year than he's been)

buerhle's #1 and #2 comps at age 27 are mark mulder and tom glavine. glavine's ERA+ over his age 28-32 years: 107, 137, 147, 142, 171. mulder's the same age as him.