River Decision with Pocket Qs H/U

[Oink]

This is my final input to any of your posts. IMO you overthink and overcomplicate simple things and refuse to accept that others may be right.


I disagree with your ranges.

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So, we have 27 hands where he now has a Pair or will pair his Jack on the River and call:
66/77/99;(18) A8s;(2) QTs;(2) QJs;(2) 98s;(3)


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What about KJ and AJ? While he may fold those a lot of ppl at 0.5/1 will call the turn.

Assuming he will never play AT and KT this way is 100% wrong using Dan's terminology

What about A8o and K8s?


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We have x hands that are drawing to a Flush going into the River and will ck/raise the River:

A6s-A9/AJs-AKs = 7 (I assume that he would not slowplay TPTK when his Top Pair is vulnerable to a K/Q/J)
K7s-K9s/KJs/KQs = 5 (again, not slowplaying Top Pair)
JTs =1
98s = 1
Total Flush draws: 14


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here you assume he peels with K7hh but above you dont think he has K8s? (no hearts)

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Then there is 88 (3)

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Has to be discounted for not c/r'ing the turn

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and JTs (4)

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So he would play JTs this way but not AT? Make up your mind whether he will c/r his TP or not on the flop.

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We'll also say he'll call with 1/2 of his AK hands, praying that is what we have.

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I think its safe to assume that AK as well as AQ is in his calling range on the river. Discounted yes. But he will be calling them sometimes.


EDIT: No its not close. But keep convincing yourself that it is.

1 MORE EDIT: there is only 2 ways he can have JTs. Look at the board

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K7s-K9s/KJs/KQs = 5 (again, not slowplaying Top Pair)

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There are only 3 of those. K7hh, K9hh and KQhh. The Jh and 8h are on the board