Handicap this bet for me (NFL Super Bowl / NE Patriots and Randy Moss)

[sabes]

Short background - I live in MN and my uncle and I have always disagreed on Randy Moss' ability to help a team. My uncle is a big hater and says any team with Moss on it will never win a Super Bowl, I say that's easy to say when Moss has only played on the Vikes and Raiders ever and he could definitely help the right team with a decent QB (Indy, New England, etc), blah blah. So now that he's playing for the Pats, we're looking to set up some sort of bet for what are the odds that Moss will win a Super Bowl.

I think Moss will either win a Super Bowl or get shipped out of NE in 3 years or less, so I'm thinking about offering my uncle a bet that would cover the next 3 seasons. I think I could get my uncle to agree to a much more generous line with a bet that covers 3 seasons rather than until Moss retires, as the time period is definite so someone will get paid by then for sure, and 3 seasons sounds a lot shorter than "potentially 8-10 years" where I think Moss' best chance to win a SB is in the next 3 years anyways.

So essentially what I'm trying to evaluate is Moss' chances of winning a SB
- in the next 3 years,
- in the next 5 years, and
- before he retires

and try to come up with a good line to offer my uncle. We will probably bet in the neighborhood of $1k-5k so it's not a huge bet, but still not insignificant and I'd like to get the better end of this deal if I could.