On the final table bubble in a WSOP Event

[curtains]

Ok I entered the prize structure and did some major calculations with the exact structure. It turns out that the pure EV between the two calling ranges is almost exactly even. Exitonly's looser range is worth a very tiny amount more than the tighter range. However IMO these are sort of a best case scenario.

For instance if you simply take 22 out of his range, the two ranges immediately become equal in EV. This is because we strongly don't want action due to the prize increase gained by every elimination. Regardless of what it may seem, these things always have an affect, and usually its a bit more than people would guess. This is kind of why I think the comments about how you should not care about squeaking into the money at all are also incorrect. It always does mean something to squeak into the money, whether it feels like it or not.


Also we don't want callers. Our hand simply doesn't play that great postflop, we could get multiple callers which is very bad for a hand like 77, and we could also get stop and go'ed on quite a few flops where we would have extreme difficulty continuing.

In any case feel free to do the math yourself (I used SNGPT and had to edit the prize structure), but the EV difference between the two ranges is exceptionally small. Simply subtract 22 and add A9o to the list, and facing this range is now worse than the much tighter range. You are playing a very dangerous game getting involved in this stuff when every elimination pays you more money.