SSNL [cheese] thread: JUNE 2007 (nc)

[bilbo-san]

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WTF why do I run so bad at 200NL (this played fine as well? Villain was 11/9/2 over 35 hands)

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<u>Hero (SB): $212.75</u>
<u>BB: $218.70</u>
UTG: $476.95
MP: $205.00
CO: $64.70
BTN: $51.85

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, BB calls $6.00

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($16) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10.00</font>, BB calls $10.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($36) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $24.00</font>, BB calls $24.00

<font color="black">River:</font> ($84) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $50.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $176.70</font>, Hero calls all-in for $120.75
Uncalled bet of $5.95 returned to BB

Pot Size: $425.50 ($3 Rake)

BB had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a flush, Ace high) and WON (+$209.75)
Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and LOST (-$212.75)

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even over 35 hands, 11/9 isn't likely to be a donk.

In general taggish players are never going nuts on a paired, 3-flush board with less than the nut flush and I think bet-folding is the way to go on this river.

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I don't think his stats are too important over only 35 hands. I ran 8/7/1 over 80 hands at one table today when I'm normaly 20/16/3.

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My only point is that it is highly unlikey he is really 35/10 or some other droolerish variant, and therefore likely that he is a non-idiot. Whether he's 16/13 or 28/25 doesn't matter much. It's not a strong read, but good enough to use here, I think.

Do you push this river with less than the nut flush (unless you are bluffing)? You really expect worse hands to call if you do?

I agree villain can be bluffing as well but probably not often enough to call, because whenever he isn't bluffing he has the nut flush or better.