Review this hand

[Buzz]

Not knowing emmy, it’s impossible to assess whether or not she would raise the river with anything less than a good full house. (A good full house here would be AA/A99, KK/K99 or A9/A99. A bad full house here would be 44/499, 49/499, or K9/K99. Emmy almost surely would have bet the turn with KK/K99, so that we can pretty much rule that one out.)

We don’t know how many players were dealt cards, or how tight/aggressive/tenacious all the various players involved in the game are. Thus the pre-flop raise could be any number of possible hands.

The bet after this particular flop could also be any number of possible hands or simply a steal attempt.

However, the raise on the flop coupled with the check on the turn looks a lot like a move to get a free river card. And if so, why? Does emmy, possibly holding a pair, or possibly with trip nines, put Hero on trip nines, possibly with an ace kicker? Is emmy possibly looking to make a full house on the river?

If that is the case, and it seems a logical case, then emmy would not raise on the river without making a full house on the river – unless bluffing with the river raise.

If bluffing with the river raise, emmy would fold to Hero’s 3-bet. In this case there would be no advantage to Hero to 3-bet.

If not bluffing with the river raise, emmy would either have AAXY or A9XY. If emmy has AAXY, Hero’s 3-bet would be a disaster. If emmy has A9XY (roughly six times as likely as AAXY), Hero’s 3-bet would scare emmy, but emmy would not likely fold. Not much of an advantage to Hero.

No advantage, disaster, not much of an advantage adds up to bet/call on the river. (If emmy raises on river, Hero is most likely either tied or beaten).

Buzz