What Chance Of Innocence Can Be Tolerated For Conviction?

[David Sklansky]

A lot of people hate the question formed this way but there is no getting around it. Assuming major felonies, equal danger to the public when a guilty guy is acquitted, identical punishments, and anything else, Pair the Board can think of to distract from the intent of this post, and also assuming that it is a pure whodonit case where the defendent hangs his whole hat on the fact that it wasn't him.

Given that. What chance of innocence in your mind is an acceptable risk?

Also should it be OK for different jury members to have different opinions on this matter? In other words is it acceptable that they come to different verdicts not because they disagree on chance of innocence but because they disagree on what that chance need be for an acquittal.

PS The definition of "chance of innocence in your mind" is how many out of one hundred cases with identical evidence would the defendent actually be innocent.