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#5
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[ QUOTE ]
Call pf is fine, although a raise could be a good play here as well depending on reads on CO. Flop I think I might lead out 3/4 pot to see if he's really serious about the hand. If he has an overpair he'll probably raise enough to push you off the hand, but at least you won't have lost too much. Remember that you're OOP so it'll be hard to extract much value out of your flush if the 4th club comes. Turn you pick up a OESD and I think if he had any sort of hand he'd want to bet the flop. I think a full pot bet on the turn is good because ideally you'd want villain to fold right here, you have lots of outs but not a made hand. He makes a fishy raise which could mean several things. A flush could check behind the flop, and he could have just turned a straight with JT as well, but I'd consider those possibilities unlikely. I'd strongly consider 3-bet pushing into his raise here, because even if he does have a hand like JT or a flush you'll still have at least 7 live outs (and that's if he already has 2 clubs in his hand). He could also have a hand like A9 that you might have some FE against (not a ton I don't think, but enough), and even if he calls with a hand like that you have outs from OESD as well. I think a call is also ok but a push is better as it will be hard to extract much value on the river if you hit, and the pot is already very large and worth taking down here. Calling is definitely an option though. River I think you could lead small here, like 1/4 to 1/3 pot because if he has a 9 or JT he might pay off, but a check to induce a value bet from a hand like Kc or Qc is fine as well. I don't think he'd value bet a bare 9 here, but certainly a boat like 98 (while unlikely) would have to bet here as well and would raise over bet if you led out, which would be another argument for checking here. [/ QUOTE ] If I bet and get raised theres 0 chance I'm folding. Don't forget an ace will often be good as well. |
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