MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)

[Trix]

Everyone is going to experience more variance now than back when a good winrate was like 2 and and great was 3+, pretty obvious I guess though.

Dont think I ever dropped more than 200ish bb, but didn´t play more than 150-200K hands and didn´t play much in game where I didn´t think my edge was 2+. Dont really have the mentallity for huge swings. There used to be some calculater where you could put in your bb/100 and see what kind of max downswings you could expect with x certaincy.
Playing around with that might be intersting for you.

Honestly, if 0.5/100 is a good winrate at 100/200, isn´t easier to make 1 at 50/100 or 1.4 at 30/60 etc and have alot smaller swings?

Btw. Every time I´ve had an extended bad run and gone back and looked through hands, I´ve come to the conclusion that I wasn´t playing optimally.

"Running" bad is like the best learning experience you can get in poker, the situations are much tougher and you have to stay focused mentally. Think it´s where alot of the value is made, if you can play better than your opponents in the same situation and keep cool.

Honestly, I have no idea if you have played optimally through this, most people can´t, but think everyone who is playing with smaller edges is going to experience bigger swings.

gl.