DNA + Microevolution+ Bayes =Macroevolution

[Jetboy2]

Here's my dog experiment.

Dogs. You name it in terms of variety, yet, they're all the same species. Look at a pug vs. a German Shepard...get the drift. Extreme variety within a species.

Say you have 3 islands that will converge and join due to plate tectonics in 10 million years in a temperate climate zone. Each variety of dog is wild and has their prey of choice (No humans involved - these dogs get to evolve naturally) Island-1 starts out in a semi-arctic world with German Shepherds. Island-2 starts in a sub-tropical zone with Pugs. Island-3 starts out in an equatorial zone with Fox Terriers.

In 10 million years, do you have dogs? Or 3 new species?

Please apply the Bayes theory to this. I'm not a math guy, but interested to know what Baye's will predict.