The Squeeze Trap

[alimousine]

I am new to the forum but have been playing MTTs for quite some time. I am curious about your thoughts on a play I employ sometimes and see it used by opponents more frequently nowadays.

I will try to illustrate with an example: late in a MTT, 4,000/8,000/400, you have an above average stack of 190,000, MP2 who was very active and probably on a steal makes it 24k to go with 200k more behind, folded to you and you look down at AA on the CO. You have been pretty active yourself as well. Both the SB and the BB are thinking players and have about 100k each. You sense that there is a strong likelihood that either the SB or the BB will shove here in an attempt to squeeze if you flat call. You flat call instead of shoving, thus setting up a "squeeze trap".

I note that this play is very read-dependent. If SB or BB (or button) do not shove/raise as you expect, you are risking to (i) give MP2 the chance to see flop for cheap (also losing the opportunity to extract more from him preflop) (ii) give other players yet to act the chance to get in for 24k and end-up playing the hand 3-4 handed (although you will have the advantage of having a well disguised hand in both cases). In return if your play works you are looking at stacking an isolated SB or BB and maybe even the MP2 will join in.

Do you think this play is profitable in the long run? Obv I dont mean how profitable it wld be to always flat call with AA/KK instead of raising, but in cases where there is a strong likelihood that someone will shove after you. How sure should you be of your read to make this play profitable? What about AK on the same spot?

Any thoughts are appreciated.

alimousine.