MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm sure most of you guys have seen this but to all the guys that don't think hock can win 1BB/100, does this change your mind? Can his results here really be attributed to variance, just curious?


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, over that sample we have a standard error of around 0.4, so within two std errors his win rate would be between 0.2BB/100 and 1.8BB/100 or thereabouts. There's a 5% chance it's even outside those bounds, and 5% is not negligible.

So yeah, it could just be variance. The trouble is, it could always just be variance. But in all likelihood he's a winner in these games - we just don't know how much of one - and he has clearly been running quite bad lately!

Guy.