Derby Picks

[NajdorfDefense]

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Naj
1) I don't see one race revealing so much more about a horse than a ton of races before.

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This is false,first off. Curlin had 2 races, lifetime.
StSense had 2 this year. Where are you getting 'a ton' from?
Barbaro had 5 in 2 years prior to the Derby. Etc.

More importantly, there was ZERO data on ANY horse at distances > 1.125mi.

Distance of a horse race is crucial to who the winner will be - that's why there are quarter horses, sprinters, milers, and 'classic' distance races. [And 2-3+mi on Turf.]
Do you see why?

Or are you assuming that because a horse can run 6 furlongs, he can run 10 furlongs just as easily - even if he comes in DFL in the Derby?

BTW, we also have centuries of breeding data and 100s of generations of horses showing that qualities like early speed, stamina, ability to run fast for 1.5mi, etc, are heritable.
That alone shouldn't convince you but is part of the argument that horses with proper breeding, who win G1 races at distances >1.125mi are more likely to do it again than horses w/ none of those qualities.

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3) You arb analogy could be just the opposite as arbs 99% of the time have one +EV side.

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Yes, and we pointed out, correctly, which side it was - the +500 side - notice how it dropped to +350. How does this not answer the question to a large degree - what am I missing? You don't seem to be giving credit where due here.

You seem to be saying '6-5 odds are wrong if he doesn't win' but you could say that about '5-1 odds were wrong if' and '10-1 odds were wrong, he shoulda been 50-1' and etc. That's not an answer. He could be a 3-10 favorite and lose with those odds being the correct odds. He could get 2-outed.

If you think the bodog odds are right, then you can still construct an +EV bet by taking the opposite side[s] in the parimutual, [assuming me/Clark are right about the public jumping on StSense,] since you are claiming the public is way off. Yes/no?

It has to be one or the other. [Unless futures and post odds are both exactly EV=, on every horse, which we both agree will never ever happen in a horse race.]

As Clark and I have said [and we frequently disagree] those are the odds he will run at, we're not saying they are necessarily correct, I agree with you on that.

But you cannot deny more information spread widely among all handicappers virtually always leads to a more correct line, than would otherwise occur.