Derby Picks

[rush66]

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I was really going to guess -800 for the no on this thing and say if it was below this I was going to load up. But here it is.

Will Street Sense win the Triple Crown in 2007? Must race the Preakness and Belmont Stakes for action. No Parlays. Max $100
Yes
+500

No
-900

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Where is that? That's an absurd overlay just from a straight pricing perspective.

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VIP NO = -350.
BODOG yes = +500 max $100.

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Is there a reason not to bet a fuckload on No?

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Because if you aren't simply looking for an arbitrage, the value is still on Yes all the way down to like +250 IMO.

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I completely disagree. I unloaded on the No at -400. How can there be value all the way down to +250. You think this horse wins the triple crown more than 28% of the time. Though only 11 of 132 that have tried have done so and none in the past 29 years. Only 29 have won both the KD and preakness...still less than 28%. Now, that being said, every case is different for sure and I understand that, this horse was not that impressive to me. Im 100% open to arguments for the Yes, though it will take a lot to change my mind.

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I don't even know horse racing at all and this sounds totally ignorant to me.

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What about it is ignorant? I dont know horseracing either and have never have claimed so. I was stating (using numbers) that the horse has history against him. +250 equates to the horse winning the triple crown 28% of the time which has not been the case throughout history. The history of the triple crown is what makes winning it so sacred.

Clark, you said yourself the horse must win both. Races, none of those 6 horses that won the preakness won both races. My point is that the triple crown has been won so few times (which I tried showing with statistics) that this horse would have had to show me something extremely imrpessive in order for the yes to have value.