An inevitable march to the final two?

[Analyst]

Here's a simplistic analysis based on some comments that Stellar Wind (I think) made. I am assuming that all of the contestants pick good songs and sing well - this is not predicated on any particular singer stinking up the stage, which would change everything.

The first assumption is that Melinda and LaKisha share to a very large extent the same demographic. In other words, if LaKisha gets voted out, a large portion of the her votes will shift to Melinda and vice versa.

In a similar vein, Blake and Jordin's demographics overlap to a reasonable extent. Again, this is very simplistic - there are 12 year olds voting for LaKisha and 90 year olds voting for Blake - but can serve for a first-level analysis. However, I don't think the voters will switch quite as much in a block as above - in particular, if Jordin goes then I think Melinda/LaKisha will pick up some votes even though Blake will probably get the lion's share.

What this means is that whoever gets voted out this week will propel their "partner" to the finals. If LaKisha/Melinda goes, then Melinda/LaKisha should pick up enough votes from their new constituency to guarantee that she makes it the finale. Same with Jordin/Blake. Therefore, there is virtually no chance of either a Melinda/LaKisha or Jordin/Blake finale.[1]

Based on all available evidence (DI, B3, performances, judges' comments) I don't think that LaKisha beats Melinda in any reasonable scenario. Therefore, LaKisha is either out this week or next.

Blake likely picked up a sizable amount of votes from the Chris R. block; given that he was quite possibly already ahead of Jordin (if not, he was almost certainly close), I think this gives him a significant advantage over her.

Bottom line: I think it's highly, highly likely that LaKisha goes out this week and Jordin the next. Whether Blake or Melinda wins will depend on how Jordin's votes split.

[1]Not all voters switch to another singer, of course - some just stop voting. If Melinda were to go out this week and a lot of her voters give up, I could see LaKisha remaining in third place, leading to a Blake/Jordin final. I think this is a very unlikley scenario if only because I don't see LaKisha outlasting Melinda.