Baseball Strategy: Underdog Moneyline and Underdog -1.5 same game

[Fraubump]

I haven't done much sports betting, but I look at the lines and I notice that baseball lines are set up so that the favorite in a moneyline wager is always the underdog in the -1.5 run line.

I assume the stategy of betting both the underdog for moneyline and the underdog for the run line, which is apprently always the other team, has been proven unworthy because of the prevalence of 1 run wins by moneyline favorites, but I'm wondering if anyone has crunched the numbers on it.

Take Tuesday's Ariz/LA game, for example:

Ariz +146
LA -157

And the run line

Ariz +1.5 -160
LA -1.5 +140

So you bet $100 on Ariz +146 and $100 on LA -1.5 +140.

Ariz Wins, you win $46
LA wins by 1 you lose $200
LA wins by 2+ you win $40

For the strategy to work LA has to win by 1 less than about 20% of the time.

That was the most attractive line for this strategy for the day. If both lines are closer to par it's obviously riskier.

Relevent considerations:

Avoid games likely to be low-scoring pitching duels.

Maybe avoid betting on home teams -1.5 as I'm guessing there is a greater number of 1 run games won by home teams due to 9th inning/extra inning come-from-behind (or from a tied situation) wins.

In a totally unscientific 1 day of data for 4/29, if you had bet the slate in this manner you would have run the table: two 1-run games, but both won by underdog.

Anyway, I'd be curious to hear any comments about the general concept.