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#11
04-30-2007, 08:15 PM
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Re: RESULTS
since this thread is still getting views and i don't know how much you guys read the msnl board..
all, a river bet is preferable to a check when the sum of [%opponent folds * pot size - %opponent call with better * bet size] and [%opponent calls with worse * (bet size + pot size)] is greater than the expectation of a check. that's it. there are no other meaningful criteria (the vague notion of meta-game notwithstanding). value bet, bluff, and 'two-way bet' are arbitrary terms denoting bet types. based on their usage it's easy to see that 'value bets' derive most of their value from having worse hands call (equation 2). 'bluffs' derive most of their EV from getting better hands to fold (equation 1). a 'two way bet' has a more even admixture of each. it is a fact that when playing against players who vary their strategy over time according to unknown variables that occasionally the best play against the set of their posited ranges is to make value bets that aren't profitable unless they occasionally act as 'bluffs' and vice versa. done and done. claiming that there exist no opponents who will 'sometimes call with worse but fold better' is quite beside the point. such paradoxical chimeras exist as useful probabilistic abstractions. (deleted irrelevant stuff) 
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