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#21
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maybe i'm playing too many cash games, but in a 4-way, 3-bet pot that includes multiple cold-callers, the first cold-caller to act behind you often times has a hand like JJ+,AK; the SB has any PP, occasionally suited connectors, but probably drops hands like AJ and AQo. The original raiser calls or pushes with his entire raising range except maybe dominated, offsuit high cards.
Against these players, the one with the range that has you most crushed is acting right behind you after the others have checked. He probably won't call with AK, but it's possible. The first two either have junk or will call your push if nobody else does. So, how often do none of these 3 players have an overpair TT+, set, two pair, or a really terribly played AK that can't let go postflop? You're a 3:1 dog against a calling range of 22-55,99+,AsKs (1 combo of AK since it's a possible but unlikely hand for you to be called with). You win 7k if you get a fold, and on average you lose t2750 when called by one player. So ALL THREE PLAYERS need to fold about 39% of the time for this to be breakeven. If you widen their calling range to 22+,AsKs, or even just 22+, you still need ALL THREE PLAYERS to fold more than 33% of the time for this to be breakeven. I would be surprised if they really all folded that often. If they do, then this play is great. |
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