Where is the flaw in this logic?

[Pitbull3k]

OK....

Say you find 2 games on a given night that are both 5 point spreads. And say you do the following:

(we'll use $11 for this exercise)

Put:
$11 on underdogg 1 at +5
$11 on underdogg 2 at +5
$11 on a 2-team parlay with the moneylines on the 2 favorites.

Now (as I've figured out), the odds on a 2-team MoneyLine teaser on 2 favorites that are both at -5 is 2.12.

Based on the outcomes of these 2 games, 6 scenarios are generated.

(For arguments sake, I'm saying I found 2 games at +4.5, odds on the ML teaser may be slightly lower but I'll keep it at 2.12 since I already figured it out at that figure)

Scenario 1: Both favorites win by 5 or more (if this occurs I lose $9.68)

Scenario 2: 1 favorite wins by 5 or more and the other favorite wins by 1, 2, 3, or 4. (if this occurs I win $11.32).

Scenario 3: Both favorites win by 1, 2, 3, or 4 points. (Being the BEST scenario I win $32.32)

Scenario 4: Both underdogs win out right (if this occurs I win $9.00)

Scenario 5: 1 underdog wins outright and 1 favorite wins by 1, 2, 3, or 4. (this is the same as scenario 4 and I win $9.00).

Scenario 6: 1 favorite wins by 5 or more and 1 underdogg wins outright. (if this occurs I lose $12.00)

4 of the 6 scenarios have us winning.

Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 seem the most common and, over time, you should find enough instances in which a game or two happens that the favored team wins by 1, 2, 3, or 4.

And you can do this with spreads up to about 10 or so. I haven't figured out the payouts yet but I probably will.

Did I miss something obvious? I mean of course its still a gamble, but you should be able to incrementally win money with this strategy. no?