Ram Vaswani speaks about that 'Golf Game'.

[PairTheBoard]

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What is the best indicator for what that expected playing level was? The easiest answer is simply the Play which he performed in those two days. If you adjust the Strokes to That level, you should get a payoff of zero.

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(1) I see no reason that his play on a given day should be the maximum likelihood estimate of his "expected play" on that day.

(2) If one were to accept your line of reasoning, no golf bet (and few other proposition bets) would ever be paid.

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This is under the assumption that Ivey violated (2) in my post. He broke the "Friendship Game agreement" to give full information about his expected playing level. Once the Arbitrators decide he did that, my reasoning is that he can't be trusted to give the Arbitrators correct information either. And even if he did, there's no way to make a precise calculation based on that information. The best evidence available to the Arbitrators then is the actual level of play Ivey demonstrated in the match.

The difference between this situation and the everyday situation you describe, is that the everyday situation doesn't go to Arbitration because estimated expected levels of play had been based on incorrect information provided during negotiations in violation of the Friendship Game Agreement.

PairTheBoard

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I guess there's another factor that could apply in an Arbitration decision. They could decide that Ivey violated the Friendship-Game-Agreement but that Ram and Partner played below their Fair Expected Playing Level. In that case the Arbitrators could reasobably decide that Ram should pay Ivey, but pay him less than the Full Amount. I suspect if they go the Arbitration route this is what will happen.

Personally, I think these guys are kidding themselves with this Friendship-Game-Agreement thing. As was pointed out earlier in this thread, when playing for that kind of money you had better be awfully close friends to think you're really getting complete and honest information about your opponents. How close? Well, if you're close enough to give him your password to all your online Bank and Brokerage accounts then maybe that's close enough. Because you are doing something very similiar to that when you take his word at purely face value in negotiating the spot at $20,000 per hole.

Are you close enough friends to let him put his hand in your pocket?

PairTheBoard