ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007

[crockpot]

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so, I'm trying to come up with a model in excel which will help me evaluate trades. I suppose this is for mostly pre-season/early season trades, where PECOTA projections still are a very powerful tool.

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not bad. this needs to be combined with a basic understanding of how variance will affect the standings.

for example, if the team with the highest projected steals total is 10 above you in sixth place, adding 11 steals will not equate to a five point expected gain in the standings. also you must consider that in a league with a lot of trading, teams will trend toward the mean in most categories as they search for balance in midseason.

still, this exercise will give you an idea of how to adjust standings gain points for your league setup, especially if you keep it up during the season.