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#10
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[ QUOTE ]
a+b+c 0,19*-57K+0,12*138K+0,69*300K = +234,390$ which is actually 9000$ less than going all in on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] using your formulation of the problem, but converting it to 2+2 favored form (where fold = 0) and correcting mistakes (i think): 108,000 in pot on turn. he has 97k left if you get it in now, you gain 205k 77.27% of the time and lose 97k 22.73% of the time = 136.31k EV if you check: 22.73% of the time you have to fold river = 0 EV 63.63% of the time you get allin on river = 205k EV 13.63% of the time a Q or J comes = X here's the indifference equation: 22.73% * 0 + 63.63% * 205k + 13.63% * X = 136.31k 130.45k + 13.63% * X = 136.31k X = (136.31k - 130.45k) / 13.63% X = 43k 43k = 108k + BetSize * Call% based on these numbers, even if he folded every time on the river you would gain money by checking the turn. another way to put it: by checking: 63.63% of the time all the money goes in anyway 22.73% of the time you save your remaining 97k 13.63% of the time you lose his remaining 97k when the scare card hits clearly even if you check behind on the river when the Q or J comes you're better off by checking the turn |
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