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Old 03-09-2007, 08:25 PM
Grease Grease is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Baltimore, MD
Posts: 2,421
Default Re: 3-bet the Turn with KK on a draw heavy board.

I'm going to throw my lot in with Bernie, and say I really like it.

The first time I read it, I didn't realize how coordinated the board was, but realizing how many turn cards could kill your hand made me realize that waiting is optimal.

Anyone that is advocating for a flop raise, please don't say it's to "charge draws." It's for value, plain and simple. You have the best hand; you will win a majority of the time, and you are simply making money by raising with the best hand.

However, given the way the action went, I think that waiting until the turn to raise could further increase your EV, because when you dodge a scary turn card, your equity goes up even higher, and the bet sizes double. MP could be doing the same thing you are with a smaller overpair (less likely now that the Q hit, but he could easily have AQ in this instance if he's loose) and you shouldn't let a wierd raise stop you from following through on your original plan.

Now, a cap makes our position a little more tricky. If you think that someone would cap the turn with a raggedy two pair, you are obliged to call, but if you think you're against a set or a straight...well, I'd have a hard time advocating a fold in a pot this huge (and I don't think I could bring myself to fold the turn), but you should probably entertain the probability of folding the river UI if capped on the turn.
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