Getting Value from Set Queens

[Scipio]

Should i push all-in or should i make a small raise?
Last days I red Sklanskys T+P again and i want to try to think a little deeper about betsizes.

I tryed to analyze this hand i want to hear from you wheter my thought prozess is right or did i make any mistakes.
Is the math allright?


While i played the hand i thought that i get a full stack from AQ/88 anyways. AK is unlikely.
All draws folds to a push so why should i push this flop?

I gave him 12 Outs ( for a hand like KsJs) and discounted them to 1-(17/47) * 12 = 7,7 Outs.

So i have to reraise´his bet 7,7/47 * (104$+32$+425$) = 92$ and he has to fold. So should i reraise now to 104$+92$= 196$ or should i make a bigger raise in hope that villain is stupid enough to make a bigger odds and outs mistake?




Villain is a thinking LAG.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($458.10)
UTG ($542.79)
Hero ($425.10)
CO ($500.40)
Button ($879.75)
SB ($704.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($34) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $32</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $104</font>, Hero calls $425.10 (All-In), BB folds.

Final Pot: $595.10