how long before PS UB and FT drop?

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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I believe the top US facing sites still have a strong enough core of non-US business to withstand most anything tossed their way (barring a marine raid on PokerStars headquarters/datacenter or something).

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Full Tilt and UB would barely survive without the US. Stars would be just fine. It appears that a site can go on just fine with 2,000 peak players. What remains to be seen if for long - fish will go broke, money will need to be deposited, ie growth is unnecessary. it's not sufficient in any business to remain stagnant.

Sniper -what biz model did Absolute change?

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I'm not convinced that FT/UB would go under without the US... on what basis do you make this statement? (convince me that you know something that I haven't thought about)

As for Absolute's business model changes, you can find links to the discussion in the big Site Tracking thread, just scroll back a bit. Basically, they changed their bonus clearing methodology, and their MGR calculations for US players.

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Personally, I would put the "sites that might be in trouble without the US" bar right below FTP, rather than right above it.

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yes of course I agree. but, many sites below FTP have already stopped taking US players. this is part of the reason why they are below FTP now - sites like Pacific, Paradise, Crpyto, and Ongame might be in the same ballpark (now) as FTP had they not already backed out.