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Old 02-06-2007, 06:10 AM
gerilege gerilege is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 23
Default Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.

So we are fully prepared to get all our chips into this pot considering our stack. The only question(?) is whether we should contbet first or check.

I think it makes no difference in case he has QQ (less likely), TT, AK or AQs, we get all-in anyway either by bet/call or check/call or check/push or bet/push (we have 15-17% equity). The interesting part is when he has JJ,99,88,77. I think this range is quite reasonable without any reads. These pairs sum up to 21 hands from the 37 (21 + 3 QQ, 3TT, 8 AK, 2AQs). Against JJ we have 82 or 87% equity (depending on the Jc), against the lower pairs it is 86-91 (depending on the club).

I think there are no really possible drawing hands considering our hand and the texture of the flop, so I’m not afraid of getting bluffed out by a lesser hand, and we assumed that we will call anyway. So when we are ahead, we have at least 82%, but possibly 91%.

Now I would need an intelligent guess about the followings without any read, if possible.

A. We bet 700:

He has JJ (with or without a club). He folds x%, calls y%, pushes 100-x-y%.
He has 99,88 or 77. He folds x%, calls y%, pushes 100-x-y%.

B. We check.

He has JJ (with or without a club). He checks x%, bets y%, pushes 100-x-y%.
He has 99,88,77 (with or without a club). He checks x%, bets y%, pushes 100-x-y%.
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