a lot to talk about

[Res-Judicata]

Wow, nice post. As a low-stakes player, I usually read these posts for fun/education but have refrained from replying because I feel, rightly I think, that I really have nothing to offer. However, this post is kinda different.

First, I'm surprised there aren't any lawyers reading this to reply. As it is, you'll have to settle for this 3rd year law student's advice (From a top 20 school if you're curious). So ask yourself, if there was 100% certainty that internet poker would continue in the US for the next 10 years, would your decision to turn pro be an easy yes?

Here's the deal: internet poker is currently in a legal gray area in the US. It is illegal to incorporate an online poker site in the US because gambling laws are left to state laws. That's why all the sites are incorporated elsewhere. The result is that they are not under US jurisdiction and thus are obliged to follow only the laws of the nation that they are incorporated under. You have no legal
protection from US courts should some dispute arise. However, I think the chance of a major dispute arising are very low since these sites are guaranteed moneymakers so market forces serve to keep them relatively fraud free. The downside for the US is that 90% of players are US citizens and the US will recieve 0 tax revenue from the commercial activity of their citizens. However, this fact seems to have little persuasive power to change the law.

Online poker is in a legal gray area because while there is no law restricting US citizens from gambling on foreign internet sites, there are laws that govern how commerce is done. Online poker is indisputably a form of commerce between US citizens and foreign companies. To date, no one has been prosecuted for gambling on the internet. Of course you can be prosecuted for other secondary things that result from it, such as tax evasion, but that's different. In terms of it becoming illegal, there would need to be federal legislation passed that specifically dealt with online gaming. For any legislation to pass, you have to ask what interest is served. Currently, there is little clamor to ban this.

However, no one's clairvoyant about the future so let's bottom line it, engineer style. If these following conditions remain true, I find it very unlikely (< 5%) that the legality of online poker will change.

1. The majority of gaming sites continue to run a CLEAN operation and there are no mass swells of players claiming they've been defrauded and demanding something be done. If this does happen, you can bet that someone will sponsor some legislation to change this. Probably to your detriment.

2. The majority of gaming sites continue to run a SECURE operation. Again, if there are a string of security failures and US citizens are hurt in some way, you can expect congress to again, try to do something about it. What that "something" is, who knows?

3. The availability of online poker doesn't lead to a perception that many Americans are developing a gambling problem that they otherwise wouldn't have had. The recent kerfuffle over internet gaming has mostly been over this aspect; that it's too easy for our precious young 'uns to get hooked. There is, of course, truth to this argument. There are many people who do not live close enough to a casino to play poker, but now can. However, if you believe as I do that the market penetration is pretty much full and most everyone who was going to become a problem gambler pretty much has already, then this is unlikely as well.

4. There is no massive technology leap that makes it easy to control internet gaming. This is a different angle from the legal one. Even if the US wanted to prohibit internet gaming, it would be technologically difficult for the US government to do without prohibiting other things. Currently, most citizens are opposed to internet restrictions of any kind so implementing this would be met with some opposition. From a legal angle, any prohibition would simply be non-technological. The governement would have to prosecute those who violated the law ex post (oh god, I'm already lawyering out w/ the latin. It means "after the fact"). This would be thorny as well because the government usually reserves the harshest punishment for those who actually run the gambling operations and not those who have participated. However, the sites are outside US jurisdictions so this is near impossible. Punishing the players would likely be recieved unsympathetically since the rationale for most of these laws is that the players are being victimized by the operation. One deterrent to legislating online poker is its technological feasibility - it would simply be hard to do. If it became easier, that might change the calculus for some lawmakers.

So judge for yourself how likely you think the following are likely to remain true and proceed accordingly. Remember that Congress only passes legislation that they BELIEVE, rightly or wrongly, people want. So perception is more important than reality here. If they BELIEVE that the majority of people want to restrict this out of control internet gambling problem, they'll probably try to do something about it. Of course, your judgments of the situation is more important than mine as you will bear the benefits and consequences. However, my opinion is that the legal status of internet gaming is very unlikely to change in the next 4-7 years. This is based on my judgment that Congress is unlikely to view this as a problem that the people want them to fix.

Sam, I hope you read this since I can't believe I spent a half hour writing it. I think your biggest concern should be whether or not this is something you actually want to do for a living. Why don't you try this out: take your 2 weeks of vacation and stick to whatever playing schedule you think you would have as a pro. I know that 2 weeks isn't representative of a career, but it should offer some insight. Maybe you'll discover that it's more of a grind than you thought, maybe not. Also, you may consider negotiating some part time status w/ your company. Also, if you're a valued contributor at your company, you may be surprised to find how flexible they will be to accomodate you. I was able to keep my job part time for the first 2 years of law school, completely working around my class schedule. I'm sure your poker schedule could be worked to accomodate the job if needed. As for benefits, my company (Intuit) simply cut everything in half. So contributions to health care and whatnot were halved and the rest came from the paycheck.

So these are my thoughts, I hoped they helped. You can read more at www.IMPLEADER.COM if you want. Plus you can read about me absolutely CRUSHING at the UB .10/.25 stakes (yes, there is a decimal before the numbers)! 2 tabling no less!

P.S. Just as some last minute legal mumbo jumbo, I must state that I am NOT an attorney and whatever advice I am offering is of a personal nature. I am not assuming any liability for any course of action pursued as a result of reading this. Also, and this applies to all you uber-players that I'm insanely jealous of: you should only keep whatever amount bankroll you need in your gaming accounts and cash the rest out. There is a tiny chance that something could go wrong. If it does, YOU HAVE NO LEGAL RECOURSE IN THE US. You will have to fly your ass to Costa Rica or wherever and hope that the legal system isn't slightly biased towards the gaming site that is giving the country lots of tax revenue. Screw hoping, it is biased. If you read the fine print you'll see a "choice of forum" provision in all of the agreements.