Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts

[TheRempel]

Well you keep calling it the third nuts when it's really the second (both SF share the same card)... but it's hardly the same as have Qxh on a 4h6hTh board. The chances of either SF being out there are remarkably slim (I think it's less than 5%, but Silent A would be able to give you better numbers). Also saying someone with the king high flush would never do this is pretty bizarre because it happens at my tables (yay party) all the time.

Not sure what games you are playing in but 150BB's is pretty shallow. If I don't have 300BB's on a table within an hour there is usually something gravely wrong.

Whether or not you should lead here is pretty greatly dependant on whether or not you mix up your play sufficiently and lead with worse flushes and sets. I agree that generally leading is the best play. I think you are missing (and it's my fault because I didn't point it out in the OP) that the pot is going to be 40+ BB's on the flop after the button raises a bunch of limpers. When he raises the flop all of the money is going in so there's not really going to be any turn play regardless unless you c/c.

Also, even if the pot was 20BB's on the flop and you lead 10, he's going to be able to make it 50 to go. If you call with a set in that situation it's a pretty big leak unless you are quite a bit deeper.

If the flop gets checked through because you're in a pretty passive game that's not a big deal either. Many hands that would call your small bet on the flop and fold the turn fearing having to call a larger river bet will be happy to get to showdown by calling the turn and river bets. Getting a 10-15BB call on the turn and a 25-30 call on the turn is a lot better than having someone call 10BB on the flop and fold the turn.

Finally I almost always prefer the line that gets your opponent to make one large bad choice rather than 3 smaller ones.