Variance

[DeathDonkey]

aba,

I'm a big fanboy of yours but I think you are just plain wrong about how high stakes limit posters use variance to rationalize anything. Everyone in this thread is being overly concerned that a big downswing is NOT due to variance. You don't (to my knowledge) have the experience of playing shorthanded limit holdem games with only a small edge and seeing the significance of short term luck in that game.

Also, you use the word "variance" to describe how a small winner rationalizes why he isn't a big winner but I think more frequently variance causes a small winner or a slight loser to BE a big winner over some amount of hands.

I am a big believer that we can always get better and taking time to focus on playing your best when losing is extremely important. That said, there are plenty of times when your results are not a direct cause of your actions and I think none of us are lazy enough to use this as a crutch, it simply happens and we wish it didn't. I feel like I'm defending limit players from you but I've seen plenty of NL players report major downswings on the high limit NL forums and BBV and a lot of those guys were big winners for a long time. I'd hate to see a guy go through a downswing and then say "well I'm done with this game/limit because this can't be bad luck" when it often can.

-DeathDonkey