Buy in requirements

[jay_shark]

For this post , i'll come up with different buy ins according to your win rate and the chance that you'll go bust .

If you win y % of your games , then the chance you lose is (1-y)% . The probability with N buy ins that you'll go broke at some point is [(1-y)%/y%]^N . So here is the breakdown .

Here is the probability you'll go bust with 5 buy ins
as a
a)55 % player .
b)60% player
c) 65% player

sol.
a)[.45/.55]^5= 36% which is too high .
b)[0.4/0.6]^5=13 % which is still too high
c) [0.35/0.65]^5 = 4.5% which is not bad but still high

The probability you go bust with 10 buy ins as a
a) 55% player
b) 60% player
c) 65% player .

sol.
a) [0.45/0.55]^10 = 13%
b) [0.4/0.6]^10 = 1.7% which is fairly low
c) [0.35/0.65]^10 = 0.2% This is extremely conservative .

The probability you go bust with 15 buy ins
a) 55% player
b) 60 % player
c) 65% player

sol.
a) [0.45/0.55]^15=4.9%
b) [0.4/0.6]^15 = 0.228% very conservative
c) [0.35/0.65]^15=0.00927% You'll never go broke

So if you're only working with 5 buy ins , then there is a significant risk of going broke even if you win 65 % of your games .On the other hand , with 10 buy ins you're pretty much playing comfortably if you can win 65 % of your games .If you're working with 15 buy ins as a 55 % player , then there is still a significant risk at 4.9% of going broke .

Make sure you think along these lines when you determine how many buy ins you need to play comfortably according to your desired ror .