Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?

[MyTurn2Raise]

alright, just placed a bet at Pinny
Florida to win by 1 to 10 points? Yes +320

EDITED as I messed up this whole part
I'm expecting Ohio State to win outright, but FLorida has a great shot of winning. I'm only estimating that the Gators win by more than 10 (when they win) about 12% of the time. Thus, I liked this line much more than the straight moneyline.[/edit]


Let's break it down
Florida offense:
6.5 ypp, 4.8 ypr, 8.5 yppa
tOSU defense:
4.6 ypp, 3.3 ypr, 5.7 yppa

tOSU offense:
6.3 ypp, 4.7 ypr, 8.5 yppa
Florida defense:
4.4 ypp, 2.8 ypr, 5.7 yppa

It appears to be a slight edge for Florida, but it's actually larger than appears. I corrected the numbers for strength of opponents. Florida faced much better defenses, while both teams faced similar offensive firepower throughout the year.

Definite edge to Florida. Through the adjustments, I have Florida at 25.19 points expected and tOSU at 22.45 points. This is before adjustments for turnovers, special teams, and other field position movements.

However, my turnover estimates have Florida making .7 more turnovers then tOSU on average in this matchup. This is based on interception ratios, sacks, tfls, and 3rd and long percentages throughout the season.

In addition, I have the Buckeyes gaining 2 points due to field position gains from Florida making more penalties.

Buckeyes gain about ~1 point from special teams deferential since Florida's place kicker is so freaking bad. There's a slight adv to Florida's punt team and an advantage to tOSU's kick returns. I think the KR advantage will be smaller than expected since Florida's youth on special teams should benefit dramatically from the extra weeks of practice.


All-in-all, that is about 5.5 points toward the Buckeyes.


I think the coaching equals out in this one. I give Tressel the edge in experience and game planning. However, I really do admire Meyer's trick play/gimmicks (which are harder than hell to prepare for--see Boise St/Oklahoma) and the way he has brought freshman along in safe situations (Harvin might create the big play needed).

MY estimates have tOSU -2.75 and the total at 47. I see good value in Florida +320 to win by 1 to 10 points.