Toney vs Peter 1/6

[Glenn]

I was going to stay away from this fight. Then I found out James Toney weighed 223 lbs at last check. He weighed 258 for the last fight. He is eating 1500 cals/day and actually doing cardio. Sam Peter is not very good at boxing. Toney by DEC +195, but it's dropping so I got in already (down to +189 now while I'm posting this). When Toney appears later this week looking much more fit, the line is going to move a lot. He is currently the underdog in the fight, but by DEC is a much better bet IMO. It is hard to imagine a scenario where Toney stops Peter without something bizarre happening. Certainly less than the 15% or so required to take him at +101 instead. Assuming the Toney fitness rumors are true, I can see him winning by DEC 50% of the time, which means this bet has value all the way to +100. In fact, it could easily be more than that.

The other tempting bet on this fight is the over at -224. Neither fighter has ever been stopped. Toney doesn't have KO power at heavyweight, and Peters wide shots probably aren't enough for Toney's hard head and good defense. However it's tough to take the over for a heavyweight fight at -224, so I'm still debating this. There is always the chance that Toney's body will react poorly to his weight loss, or that someone will be injured/cut. And Peter can certainly hit.