15/30 AK

[SackUp]

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with the size of the pot and the previous cc, I think that lp and sb are as likely to call 1 as they are 2.

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I don't see how you can think this. They cold-called 2 small bets previously on the flop, which could mean many things. If they cold-called to big bets on the turn, then i'd agree with you, but most somewhat competent players are folding something like top pair to 2 bets at the river on this scary board. They might even fold 2 pair.

Of course, they might call 2 bets cold with 1 pair or 2 pair, but to say they are as likely to call 2 than they are as 1 is a little crazy to me.

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ok as likely is a bit of a stretch, but I think there are a lot of hands they are calling 1 with that they are calling 2 cold with. And I think there are more of these hands, than hands they are folding for even 1 bet. Hence I raise.