The Two Point Conversion When Eight Down

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Do coaches know that they losing 5% more games than they should be in this specific situation? Do coaches know/understand the math that says that going for 2 is a 5% better move?

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I think they understand it. Prof. Romer proved in his research that a team facing fourth-and-goal within five yards of the end zone is better off, on average, trying for a touchdown. I'm sure the coaches that read his research understood it. You have to be smart to be an NFL head coach. Many probably agree with the math behind it.

Now ask yourself if NFL coaches are going to start going for the TD on 4th and goal from the 4 yd line. Doubtful. So I think other factors are making them choose the conservative play, other than not understanding the math.

One of the attractive aspects of poker is that your results (usually) effect you only. So if you know pushing all-in with 8-4 offsuit is the right percentage play, you do it. It's a lot harder to make that play when 60,000 fans (many who don't understand the math behind your decision) have a vested interest in your decision and will scream for your job if they decide you took a bonehead gamble.

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yeah....coaches are aware...
we just had the fourth down debate in sporting events forum. There was an ESPN article getting many of the coaches' takes.
They are aware of this stuff...they just don't buy it! Rightfully so IMO.
I got into a big debate on the Romer paper as alot of his assumptions just seemed outlandish to me, much as the assumptions here, in the OP, are ridiculous IMO.