New Fight Question

[Viscant]

It's impossible to argue that there in an element of chance/luck in a fight. I can think of 3-4 examples of fights off the top of my head where one guy had the fight won and the other guy landed a miracle knee or lucky punch and sucked out a win.
But people always tend to overestimate the puncher's chance. A puncher's chance isn't holding 72o against AA. A puncher's chance against an elite MMA fighter is holding a 2 and a community chest card. The element is luck on the ground is virtually zero. When a non-crosstrained standup fighter is said to have a "puncher's chance" against a vastly superior grappler, really he has A PUNCH's chance. Once range is closed, the ability to debilitate an attacker is reduced to almost nothing and once already on the ground in an advanced position (side mount, back mount, north/south, hell even half guard will do against a man untrained in ground fighting), the ability to debilitate is reduced even further.

So while I agree with you that there is an element of chance in any form of combat, it is greatly exaggerated and at best will account for maybe 1 match in 50 at the most.