The Two Point Conversion When Eight Down

[CanadaLowball]

my main concern about this whole thing is whether or not 42% actually represents the probability of success.

its not exactly rolling dice or dealing cards we're talking about, so are we able to apply past success/failure rates to current situations that may not involve the same plays and players and all the other factors.

so basically, what i'm asking is this: at any given time, does a team attempting a 2 point conversion really have a 42% probability of success?