New Fight Question

[pvn]

[ QUOTE ]
So we "have" to choose how probable it is that they are generally equally skillful, or who is more likely to be skillful. In the absence of any kind of hard information, and in the presence of only some WWF-like posturing, I chose equally likely. (And, remember, we're supposed to be assessing the line for skills about a fight to the death.) I also said that if it can be shown that the UFC man is more likely, then [shrug] no sweat, he gets the nod.

You are putting down my "binary" notions, but you should realize that in this kind of general, abstract quest we can going around in circles for ages.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I didn't actually take a position on which one is better than the other. I just pointed out the problem in your position.

Of course, you could also say that a Golden Retreiver has all the skills a Grizzly Bear does, plus he can fetch slippers, retreive game, roll over on command, and water ski. And we don't have any hard data (I googled for dog vs. bear and http://youtube.com/watch?v=Xh9ckpkaalA was the best I came up with). So we could go in circles for ages, because all you have to do is ignore reality and just say something like "well, the dog will either win or he won't, and since we don't have hard data, we'll just fill in the blanks and say it's a 50-50 proposition!"




[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Victor Kramnik...Go...

[/ QUOTE ] During his preparation for the Manila match against Korchnoi, Anatoly Karpov and his team would relax by taking walks or playing pool. Karpov was introduced to the Asian game of Go, by his seconds, as a diversionary game of relaxation, but they had to abandon that practice quickly, because the unfailingly competitive and analytical Karpov was immediately all over his new discovery, deep in examination and brain cell burning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly my point. Even though he had never played that particular game before, he was skilled enough at something very similar that he would likely crush someone who had played the game quite a bit, but hadn't done it as his primary activity day in and day out.

The skills that a UFC champ is exceedingly proficient in (hand to hand combat not to the death) map very closely to the skills that would be most useful in hand to hand combat to the death. The SEAL who is the best at hand to hand combat to the death has probably killed a handful of people in that manner. Maybe even a few hundred. But it's very unlikely that any of them had *any* significant hand-to-hand combat skills.

Just like I've gone 100-0 in go, but I've only played third graders. Set Karpov in front of the go board totally cold, hand him a single-page set of instructions and let him take me on. Who's the favorite?