Player Discussion

[fyodor]

Ok, I said I was done with this thread, but in keeping with a tradition that has long ago been established here, I will post again (and again if necessary).

I was only half joking with my calculations.

If AQs folds to the $110 reraise he risks and loses nothing. JJ picks up whatever is in the pot. $55

If AQs calls the $110, he can expect to make $14.65 on his call given the postflop conjectures of MM. No one disputes this.

JJ should make $165 x 67% - $375 x 26% + $390 x 7% = $40.35 on his $150 reraise when AQs calls.

Note that $40.35 + $14.65 = the $55 that was in the pot when JJ reraised.

Given that JJ would have won the entire $55 if AQs had folded, he actually loses $14.65

Based just on the money added when AQs calls (the $110) JJ loses 35c ($110 x 67% - $375 x 26% + $390 x 7%) I am no math genius (you all know that right?) but probably the -$375 in this calc should include the $55 and actually be $430 which then does balance the books.

The reason the dead money is considered in only one side of the equation is because AQs is making his call based on money already in the pot. JJ bases his calcs on money yet to arrive. What's in there is his already. He just bet. If no one calls he gets it.

I know it's stupid and believe me I see the other (real) side. It's just that this is the only math that makes Mason right. And someone had to elaborate.