Player Discussion

[El Diablo]

[ QUOTE ]
My answer was that if someone was all-in, the jacks would be better, but if they each had chips left, which was the case here, the ace-queen suited was better.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The question is regardless as to whether it is right or wrong to call the raise, if you do go ahead and call it, which hand would you now rather have.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Edited to add: As I read through the thread, I notice that slong already did the second calc I present below]

Mason, given your assumptions about how the players play post-flop:

Numbers used below are:
[150 = money put in preflop.
165 = money opp put in preflop + 15 blinds.
225 = money put in on flop.
67/26/7 are from Mason's post re: how these players will play post-flop]

67% of the time, AQ loses 150
26% of the time, AQ wins 165+225 = 390
7% of the time, AQ loses 150+225 = 375
= -100 + 101 - 26 = -25

67% of the time, JJ wins 165
26% of the time, JJ loses 150+225 = 375
7% of the time, JJ wins 165+225 = 390
= 110 - 98 + 27 = +39

So, this seems to me like given the scenario (JJ reraises and AQ calls reraise), I would want JJ.

Now, as the question is framed in terms of all the pre-flop already having happened, we should really consider the 315 in the middle dead money - so "if you[AQ] do go ahead and call it, which hand would you now rather have?" - AQ or JJ, given the 315 dead in the middle.

So now:

67% of the time, AQ makes 0.
26% of the time, AQ wins 315+225 = 540
7% of the time, AQ loses 225.
= 0 + 140 - 16 = 124

67% of the time, JJ wins 315.
26% of the time, JJ loses 225
7% of the time, JJ wins 315+225 = 540
= 211 - 58 + 38 = 191

I did not check my math and I did taste 12 scotches earlier tonight, so perhaps I've done something wrong here, but it looks like whether I look at this in terms of the whole hand start-to-finish or in terms of just which hand is better to have post-flop with chips left given the pre-flop scenario that just occurred, Jacks seem better using the assumptions about how these players play that you stated.

Now, I think the situation is far worse than this, as AQ will often pay off far more on A or Q flops and will get stacked by JJ far more than JJ gets stacked by AQ. And other considerations like JJ blowing AQ off best hand more than AQ blows JJ off best hand.

But, ignoring the other considerations I feel are important, I still can't see why, using all of the assumptions you state about how the players will play, you prefer having AQs to JJ.