MyTurn's week 8 CFB (10/19-10/21)

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Iowa u15.5 @ Michigan good until -135

I was leaning toward Michigan on the spread and then it occured to me the real value here is Iowa's total being low. Iowa fulfilled my constant calling for them being overrated last week. This week is a different beast. Iowa has put up some impressive totals all year. They are averaging over 29 ppg. But, sometimes the numbers lie. Iowa has only faced two defenses in the top80 (in terms of scoring defense); Ohio State and Montana (who is up there from the weaker schedule).
Iowa played a very good game against Ohio State and put up 17 at home. I expect more struggles against a Michigan D that might just be the best in the country. MIchigan is #1 verse the run, allowing below 33 ypg!!!!
I've stated before how Iowa doesn't have the ability to stretch opposing defenses. It looks to be a nightmare situation verse a MIchigan team, that is near the top in sacks and tfl, who will bring everyone up to pressure and terrorize the Hawkeyes. Michigan allowed 7 v Vandy, 17 v C Mich, 21 @ Notre Dame, 13 v Wisconsin, 14 @ Minny, 13 v Michigan St, and 10 @ Penn St. That's a pretty decent lineup of good competition all held down by the Maize and Blue. The only 2 teams to get above 15.5 did it in garbage time, one of those being a vertical attacking, pass happy Notre Dame team. I don't think Iowa has the tools for explosive plays to score, even in garbage time.

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Michigan 20
Iowa 6

the spread clawed it's way there, too. Iowa's offense just cannot create big plays.

9-3 week 8