The profitablity of a bluff

[Fiksdal]

I was thinking about how to calculate the EV of a bluff. I came up with this formula. Do you think it is correct?

P = Pot before you bluff
B = Bet-size of the bluff
FE = The percentage of the time you guess all opponents will fold to your bluff
EV = Exptected value

EV = -(B -(B * FE)) + (P * FE)

This formula assumes you will never win any part of the pot in any other way if the bluff is called.

Example:

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
SB: 1000$
Hero: 1000$

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
8 folds, SB calls 5$, Hero checks.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($20, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB calls $15.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($60, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $25, SB calls $25.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($100, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $50

In this hand, Hero thinks the opponent will have a busted flush draw 50% of the time,
in this case he will fold to Heros bluff.

The remaining 50% of the time Hero thinks villain has been slow-playing a monster, and the bluff will be
at least called.

The opponent will therefore fold to a bet 50% of the time here.

Here are the calculations:

P = 100$
B = 50$
FE = 50% = 0.5

EV = -(B -(B * FE)) + (P * FE)

EV = -(50$ -(50$ * 0.5)) + (100$ * 0,5)

EV = -(50$ -(25$)) + (50$)

EV = -(25$) + (50$)

EV = 25$

In the example, your bluff will on average win you 25$, if I have gotten things right here.

I just came up with this forumla and I'm not really confident with it yet. I'd appreciate if anyone in this forum has any thoughts on it.