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Old 10-03-2006, 02:38 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 15,430
Default Re: 35 k on stars (is this where the good player folds ak preflop)

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I am suprised so many people say fold. First of all, this is the second hour of the $10 rebuy. Secondly, villain made a huge overbet, which is less likely to be a big pair. I think this is usually AK or JJ/QQ. I call this.

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we do not have the odds to call against a range of JJ/QQ/AK.

but thanks for stopping by.

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You are calling 25400 to win 30200, 1.19-1, putting in 45.6% of the money.

You are 45.9% against AK, JJ, QQ.

Obviously, there is a question of how often this is AQ or something and how often it is AA/KK. This is sort of a question of do I want to take an even gamble for all my chips. However, I think that in the 2nd hour of the 10 rebuy it is 2 high cards often enough to call.

Anyway, you do have odds against the JJ,QQ,AK. I appreciate your expertise with odds, and thanks for stopping by.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

431,500,608 games 0.517 secs 834,624,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.8745 % 25.29% 20.58% { AKo }
Hand 2: 54.1255 % 33.54% 20.58% { QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }


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OMG a .3% edge! WTF? I am all for pushing are small edges but this is too far. In a buy-in this low, my edge over the field is better than .3%. Does this .3% take into account the rake? I don't think it does. I'm all for passing on this edge and finding a better spot (say 55/45).

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You have a .3% edge if villain always does this with JJ/QQ/AK and nothing else. People were acting like I was an idiot and saying you don't have odds to call against that range, so I was showing that you do.

However, this is the 2nd hour of the $10 rebuy. Villain just made an overbet push at an early position raiser. What do you put him on? This is AQ a lot and all sorts of other junk. Against a good player, this is a fold, but what does that have to do with the situation.
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