Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 4 (Regular Edition)

[Performify]

Any time a line moves opposite of the side I'm on, its always a cause for concern.

yes, the line gets more attractive to us, but we also didn't really cross any key numbers here so its not like we moved off the three and are now getting a lot of value.

Basically to see this line move, we've got to ask ourselves:

1) Is it sharp money coming in on the other side?

2) Is it Joe Public placing numerous bets on the other side?

3) Is there information we're overlooking? i.e. late injury, serious mismatch, specific motivation, etc?

In this case I've looked at it closesly and am hoping that its the second case, that the casual NFL bettors who usually place bets on Friday/Saturday/Sunday are starting to move their money in and its coming in on the Patriots, who are generally one of those public favorites. I hope that's whats happening. But since there's no way to know, the fact that the line hasn't moved as I expected means I temper my liking this game with ensuring that its only a single unit play to reduce my exposure in case its either #1 or #3.