Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?

[seke2]

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Things to remember:

- Wasicka in one of those canned interviews said he thought he would win HU against Gold if Gold had him outchipped 10:1

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That's dumb of him. He might be better than Gold, but he's not that much better.

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- Gold had talked about his hands perfectly and said something like "let's go all three of us and get this over" and everyone always made the wrong decision when they based it on what Gold was talking about... certainly a factor for Wasicka.

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That's a valid point regarding reads.

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- Gold has luckboxed into the most unlikely hands at all times. If you saw him bust two FT players with QQ to JJ, would you be spooked? How about his 22 flopping a set against AK? Wasicka's correct read and incorrect laydown against Gold's 52 turned straight after checking too far down? If I was in Wasicka's shoes at the moment he had to decide to lay this hand down, those factors would be at the forefront of my mind more so than calculating odds.

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Totally irrational to make a decision based on him being lucky.

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... Wasicka's best bet would have been to overpot bet or push the flop to isolate... in that case you're making Binger and Gold make the tough decisions - who at the FT ever made Gold make the hard decision? Once Wasicka passes up the flop lead out, his fold makes a lot of sense to me, especially in the context of figuring out his best chance to cash at a higher level... they are in the pot let them duke it out if they show strength.

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I agree with the first part of what you said here, but not the second part, the fold still doesn't make sense in the context of everything else.

The ONLY thing that people have said that makes Wasicka's fold even slightly palatable is the read he had on Gold, but as people have demonstrate with pot odds and whatnot, unless he was convinced that Gold's draw WAS exactly a higher flush draw (as opposed to a lower flush draw) or a straight draw, against a range of hands for Gold including various drawing hands (since he "knew he was on a draw") still makes this a pretty solid call.