Update - Week of September 25th

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
"I'd say there is a 40 percent chance it comes back up during the lame-duck session (in November), a 40 percent chance the defense bill passes this week without an Internet gambling ban or any other attachments, and a 20 percent chance the defense bill passes this week with the Internet gambling ban," said the lobbyist, who requested anonymity."

http://www.casinocitytimes.com/news/...ntentID=161365

P.S. That lobbyist needs some help with (conditional?) probabilities. He has missing probability mass, unless he really believes there is a 60% chance this may all go away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, he's positing a 60% chance of the defense authorization bill being voted on this week, whereas it's realistically more like .6%.

FWIW, I think the overall chances of a ban passing (this week + lame duck) are probably in the neighborhood of 30-40%.