MyTurn's week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)

[MyTurn2Raise]

I wish I knew...I expected this line to be near two touchdowns. I've tried to figure out why it only moved from an opening of -5 to -7.

One reason is the 20-5-3 ATS blah blah blah stuff. Personally, that kind of stat usually makes me vomit in my mouth a little. While an interseting sidenote, my opinion is that those numbers are worth very little. They try to show that there is a systematic bias that underrates a team in the public's eye. They also suppose that this underrating will continue.

I don't buy it. Honestly, if lines are set so that they are accurate and have a 50/50 chance of ending up on either side, you'll see some teams go on odd streaks. Flip a coin a few hundred times and see how random heads and tails really are.[/rant]

Real Reasons to choose Iowa:
-they are undefeated and ranked #14
-Iowa is playing in a good home environment
-tOSU was unable to really establish the run last week and Iowa has a very solid defensive line
-Drew Tate doesn't usually make many turnovers
-tOSU's achilles heel has been stopping a straightforward rush attack

My response:
-big deal: beating Montana, Iowa St, Syracuse, and Illinois doesn't impress me
-tOSU is ready for a tough road environment more than any other team
-tOSU's supremacy out on the corners will cause the Iowa defense to adjust that way. Then, tOSU can blow up the line and mediocre linebackers.
-Iowa lacks big playmakers on offense. Tate hasn't been able to throw downfield since his injury either. He's going to face more pressure than he has all year; it's always interesting to see how a qb will respond to the first few head knocks of the season.
-Iowa lacks the straightforward rush attack to expose the Buckeyes weakness. This hurts doubly so since the Tate offense thrives off play action. Play action only works with the defense bites...uh oh.


So, I'm still searching for game analysis that shows why the Sqawkeyes will win. Perhaps, I'll venture over to fantasyland (ie the Hawkeyes fanboards) to see what their deluded fans think.