Party Blackjack - kickass Promo

[TheBloke]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone is saying party doesn't read 2+2. Just that you have to be very naive to think they didn't realize 2+2 would be all over this promo to begin with.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, we are not naive. It is Party who were naive, as they clearly didn't think that. There were incredibly naive in even running the promo. If this could be a profitable promo it would be run frequently by a lot of casinos - it has certainly been offered by some casinos in the past (2+ years ago). The fact that it isn't any more should show you that in today's world of bonus hunting, it simply is not viable.

For some reason, Party thought differently. They thought they could run this and make money. That was really dumb. Assuming multi-tabling and $100/hand betting, this was worth about $6k in EV per high-bankroll advantage gambler. Maybe $5k taking into account mistakes, and to be conservative. 2+2 could easily bring 1000 of those people. That's $5m that Party could lose. That's one hell of a loss-leader. You really think that a 3 day promo could bring in more than $5m of new lifetime revenue from donks? And even if the cost of 2+2 was just $1m, it's still not going to be recooped.

So Party screwed up big time here. Sadly the presence of 2+2 (and probably some other public message boards, though few are as dangerous as 2+2) caused them to realise their stupidity, and it will never be offered again. Basically 2+2 serves as a huge beacon for any casino that makes a promo mistake - here you all stand, publically waving banners declaring "You screwed up and we're going to take you for every penny we can!" So they learn real fast. Good if you enjoy helping casinos, not so good if you want to make some money.

[ QUOTE ]

Do you *really* think this is the only forum in the Universe?


[/ QUOTE ]
No.

[ QUOTE ]

The only msg board dedicated to talking about +EV casino bonuses?


[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[ QUOTE ]

How many other sites do you think we're talking about this promo this week? 10? 100? More?


[/ QUOTE ]

Could be.

[ QUOTE ]

Do you also think PartyGamingPLC, a worldwide and publicly traded firm with market cap ~ $8bn has it's actions determined by a few dozen posters on THIS particular thread?


[/ QUOTE ]

Quite possibly, yes. And if they didn't, they should have.

[ QUOTE ]

That you know more about marketing +EV bonuses than they do?


[/ QUOTE ]

In this case, certainly. I could have told them for absolute certain that a 2:1 BJ promo advertised to all on their website would lose them money, and I would have been right.

In general, yes often I know more than the average exec. I don't see the figures they do, but I see the trends and the patterns and what bonuses last and what bonuses disappear after a day, in a way that most individual casinos obviously do not understand. I say obviously because I see a promotion at Casino A that fails after 3 days then I see a similar disaster at Casino B a few months later. If I ever decide to start my own casino, I will be confident that I can design profitable (for me) promotions. A 2:1 BJ promo certainly wouldn't be on my list.

[ QUOTE ]

That Party only looks at posts on this thread and not the literally, hundreds of other msg boards and blogs and sites and etc that discuss this stuff on a daily basis?


[/ QUOTE ]

What they care care about is when a site with tens of thousands of profitable poker players with high bankrolls and lots of time on their hands are exposed to their promotion in a way that ensures they will all take it with maximum force and maximum advantage.

As a matter of fact, I can't find much talk about this promo anywhere but 2+2. No doubt there are pockets of discussion, maybe even a couple of threads on other bigish sites. But this thread is the one that would scare them. That's why we're posting about it here. If I thought other forums were doing more harm, I would be wasting my time over there rather than here.

[ QUOTE ]

What you post can never be considered 'the truth,' I note you throw that word around as if what you think is de facto true because it's your opinion. Good times.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your arrogance astounds me. I would never assume to tell you anything about poker because I know little and you (presumably) know a lot. Why then you feel that you must know more about casino and the workings of their promotions is strange. We know what kills bonuses, and we know numerous tangible examples of where a bonus ran for X months and then died 2 days after a howto guide was posted on 2+2. This example is the most flagrant yet, where a highly EV promo died before it even began. As Izverg said, no we can't prove that 2+2 was the sole driver in the decision, and it may even have been that it wasn't. But the undeniable fact is that these posts will reduce EV. 2+2 kills casino EV! Again and again! It is simply too big.

It's still bemusing to me that everyone here gets so upset at the suggestion that public silence would bring more EV. It's not like we're suggesting you shouldn't hit the promo, or even that you shouldn't tell people about it. Just that you shouldn't post about it here, and if it is posted, you shouldn't add to it. You call yourself advantage players, you come to this forum to improve your money-making skills, and yet when you are given cast iron advice as to how to improve EV in a particular area, you laugh and sneer. I suppose the reason for your anger could be that most of you wouldn't have known about this had it not been posted here. So you fear that if next time it's not posted, you'll miss out. Well this time it was posted and you still missed out, so perhaps you could bring yourselves to try the other method next time.

The irony of this 'debate' is that, if online casino bonuses just appeared today, and I came to this forum to tell you all about it, I would very likely be told "you're a retard, that's BS, casinos are a mugs game".

Good times.