A play that works 99%....if

[vypremik]

There is another way to look at this. Think about why someone would play this way up to the turn and then either call or raise your bet on the river.

1) A beginner who hit any part of the board may call the river bet.

2) A caling machine with a medium to strong hand will call the bet.

3) Someone slow playing will raise the river.

4) A very good player may see your move as an attempt to steal and go over the top.

5) A pro may call your bet to get information.

6) Your table image may make any perceptive player call.

There may be a few other cases, but I do think it is a profitable play if you use it conservatively. I think 99% is a bit optimistic at most tables, though.